Tomorrow’s ACNielsen poll has Labor on 54% of the two-party vote, which represents a two-party swing of 6.5% – a heavy Coalition defeat although not quite the rout which some are predicting. This poll was taken after the PM’s policy launch but before Kevin Rudd’s. A poll taken after the Rudd launch would probably have been ever better for Labor. With only a week to go there seems no way out for the Coalition. Particularly since tomorrow’s news will be dominated by damning report (see link in comment below) from the Auditor-General on the Coalition’s rorting of the Regional Partnerships scheme.
November 15, 2007 at 10:09 pm
This is the report referred to above. (I can’t make the link work when I put it in the main window.)
November 15, 2007 at 11:15 pm
Gonna have to add the Abott workchoices melt down to the list for the next poll
November 16, 2007 at 8:54 pm
Adam with all your knowledge on how seats are likely to fall, do you admit to putting at least a couple of small wagers on one of the betting websites?
I imagine you would do very well!
November 17, 2007 at 9:21 am
I have many vices but gambling isn’t one of them.
November 18, 2007 at 1:21 pm
Adam, do you know where i can get transcript of speeches at ALP launch
November 18, 2007 at 9:37 pm
I’m surprised Rudd’s speech is not at the ALP website. I’ll see what I can find out tomorrow.
November 20, 2007 at 4:13 am
Adam,
Do you think the Australian Democrats will hold any seats and are they completely finshed?
Is John Howards Seat under any threat?
WHats your prediction for the Senate?
David White
England
November 20, 2007 at 11:56 am
Dave,
The Aus. Dems are pretty much done for, they’re pinning all their hopes on retaining one senator in Queensland but it’s long odds and annihilation looms.
John Howard’s in trouble in Bennelong, his challenger is very strong and is leading in the polls It’s still uncertain as PMs losing seats doesn’t happen very often but expectations of a Labor win are doing serious damage to Howard’s position in his own seat — there’d be no point in keeping him around if the Coalition lose.