This blog is an adjunct to my website Adam Carr’s Guide to the 2007 federal election. It exists for visitors to that site to make comments on matters related to Australian elections, and specifically the 2007 federal election. It does not exist as a forum for general political debate or party-political spam. I will delete any such posts and block repeat offenders.
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Psephoblog's Weblog 
October 21, 2007 at 8:42 am
First post! 🙂
October 21, 2007 at 8:47 am
Please see my (crude) betting-market-de-jour in the following links.
http://www.pollbludger.com/?p=635&cp=2#comment-60040
October 21, 2007 at 9:09 am
Adam,
Good luck with your blog. Just to go on record: I predict Labor to pick up about 20 to 25 seats giving it a comfortable 5 to 10 seat majority.
October 21, 2007 at 9:16 am
Hi Adam – yes it works!
October 21, 2007 at 9:28 am
Beauty!
October 21, 2007 at 1:23 pm
Hi Adam,
so this is your new baby! I’ll be watching to get the jist of what your after & I hope I can contribute in some small way. May I state that KR won the debate tonight & the polls will reflect that this week. My guess if the momentum that has started will roll on until a Labor landslide prevails. I’m still deciding how big the margin will be but it will be huge!
October 21, 2007 at 4:21 pm
I enjoy every aspect of your wonderful website and will have fun with this blog.
Kevin Rudd had a massive win in tonight’s debate. If the ALP landslide does occur will Australians be well served by a compliant, useless Senate, as we have now.
Your website is harsh on the Democrats’ Senate chances, especially regarding Andrew Bartlett and Lyn Allison who have worked hard and intelligently.
October 22, 2007 at 12:20 am
I find this site just brilliant. Thank you for the effort you have put into its content. The electoral history is amazingly comprehensive and very informative.
October 22, 2007 at 1:15 am
My comment on the debate
I share the general view that Rudd put in the better performance, but we all recall that Beazley won both his debates and went on to lose the elections. Nevertheless, Howard is nine years older and tireder than he was in 1998, and obviously it showed. If any genuine floaters were watching (and not many would have been) they would have had their doubts about Howard (and Costello) sharpened. Rudd was right to attack Costello, since the punters know that if they re-elect Howard they will get Costello as PM in 2009. The line that “Costello equals WorkChoices II” was a shrewd jab, and has the merit of being true, since Costello is even more zealously anti-union than Howard. Having said all that, we need to recall that it’s 33 days till polling day. The Libs knew Howard would lose and that’s why they only wanted one debate and why they wanted it so early. The debate won’t have a huge effect on the outcome, but it will have some, because the general view that Rudd is a better performer and that Howard is past it will percolate out to those who didn’t watch. The debate will serve to reinforce Rudd’s positives and Howard’s negatives.
October 22, 2007 at 9:00 am
Adam lad!
Go play around with all the wordpress controls, and update with new blogs (not in comments), and change your name to Adam (not psephoblog)!
Heck, see if you can set this up at psephoblog.adam-carr.net!
October 22, 2007 at 11:40 am
It seems like nearly EVERYONE is predicting a Labor victory… However, I still believe that this is going to be a 50-50 election with some possibility of not knowing who actually won the election days after the election… Anyway, my view is pretty unique – I think Howard will get around (only) 48.5% of votes but just managed to across the line with 75 or 76 seats. I believe that QLD is very important, but WA is the key – because I think WorkChoice will help Coalition across the line for Stirling, Hasluck, and gain either SWAN or COWAN (or even both). At the end of the day, being an incumbent is an advantage (particular for marginal seats) for the government. With Rudd (and his team) has no minister experience, Labor controlling all three levels of government, and ‘me-too’ everything, in my opinion, will work against Labor when people ‘actually’ vote… Then again, an interest rate raise after Cup may change the whole game.
October 23, 2007 at 1:13 pm
I will record my prediction of the ALP to get 82 seats, LNP 56, independents 2. I think the Senate will go Coalition 37, ALP 34, Greens 3, FF 1, Nick Xenophon 1. The only reason that people believe John Howard can win is that he has come from behind before, but this is not “before”. If the polls had been c55-45 in favour of the Coalition all year, no one would be predicting a Labor victory.
October 23, 2007 at 1:14 pm
Adam,
Where is this website? It’s not 1.13pm, but 11.13pm.
October 24, 2007 at 2:55 am
Adam, good luck with the blog,( put your name /brand on it. )
For all electoral VISUAL marketing needs, contact http://www.parkdrivemedia.com
October 24, 2007 at 5:11 am
Not one mention of our party anywhere on your site! Please check us out to see that we do, indeed, have candidates!
Deb Cashion
http://www.whatwomenwant.org.au
October 24, 2007 at 10:48 am
Chris, I have no idea how that works, I will look into it.
Brooklyn Bro, I will seek your advice on this via another medium.
Deb, all the WWW candidates are listed at the appropriate pages, with links to your party website, and at the candidates’ gallery.
Ian, I did say I didn’t want party political rants on this blog, so I am deleting your post, much as I may agree with it.
October 25, 2007 at 10:18 pm
Adam, I have just read your comments on the seat of Deakin. You state that it is a homogenious outer-suburban electorate. As someone who lives in the seat, this is completely untrue. The Blackburn end of Deakin is classic Melbourne eastern suburban and has been drifting steadily toward the ALP in recent elections. The Ringwood end of the seat is drifting the other way. It has reached the stage where the wealthier, professional western end of Deakin is more likely to vote for the ALP than the eastern end (which IS outer suburban). In short, this is two seats in one. The western end will continue to swing to the ALP, possibly quite substantially. Whether the seat is lost by the Liberals will depend on whether Ringwood swings substantially as well.
October 26, 2007 at 12:07 am
Dear Adam
I congratulate you on the thorough job of research (much is available elsewhere) on the 12 marginal seats. I also think it was well-worth demolishing the spin about union bosses, especially as it is patently untrue, especially because you could also trawl the Liberal front bench to see if they were 93% tax dodging corporate lawyers and canal estate speculators.
The fact is that successive governments have sought to undermine unions, causing a falloff in membership. Numbers of students who belong to student unions since the Howard government’s VSU legislation. So, if so few people choose to belong to unions that have lost their power, why are we supposed to be frightened? The answer is that this is a fear campaign with no substance.
And this is not a party spam – lots of Labor people will be nodding.
WEilly Bach
Greens candidate for Griffith
October 26, 2007 at 9:32 pm
Congratulations Adam, will leave you with my favorite reminder of what is driving the polls at present.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/5202.0?OpenDocument
October 26, 2007 at 11:25 pm
a very fine site Adam, i hope you don’t mind that i quoted your numbers on the union background of the ALP frontbench in a couple of postings (ABC online and Pollbludger). i did acknowledge you positively.
October 27, 2007 at 2:11 pm
You can quote me all you like 🙂
Anthony, thanks for your comments on Deakin. I will amend my text accordingly.
October 28, 2007 at 2:31 am
Adam — can I suggest you have a new blog (new post) for every new thing you add?
October 28, 2007 at 10:35 pm
Well, I’m not really adding new things here. I’m just responding to people’s comments.
I think I have now fixed the date thingy.
I see Pollbludger has crashed because all William’s bandwidth has been used up. Much as I love Pollbludger, I have to say it is spoiled by William’s policy of allowing people to post as much party-political spam as they like. It wouldn’t cost him so much if he was more restrictive.
October 28, 2007 at 11:37 pm
Adam, I think the resource you have provided us with here is fantastic, but you are going a bit too far in trashing William’s blog. I also think you should own up to your own partisanship, if you are going to make that accusation about his blog.
October 28, 2007 at 11:40 pm
Adam, you say: “There are seven seats with Liberal majorities of under 2%. These are Kingston, Bonner, Wakefield, Makin, Braddon, Parramatta and Hasluck. I’m confident the Liberals will lose all seven.”
Given that Parramatta is ALP held, isn’t it better to leave this one out of the calculations to find the 16 seats the ALP require to form government?
October 28, 2007 at 11:41 pm
Bob, relax.
October 28, 2007 at 11:48 pm
wbb, I’m so relaxed I’m bobbing down. I also note that Adam has trashed William’s blog over at Possum, too. That’s not very nice, now is it? Come out of the closet, Adam (in the political sense, I mean) and own up to your work for the Labor Party. It’s not a crime anymore (except perhaps in Tasmania).
October 29, 2007 at 2:18 am
Bob, what are you talking about? I have not “trashed” William’s blog. I said William had run out of bandwidth because his blog gets so much traffic. At least half of his traffic is party-political spam, most of it boring and repetitive. I never said that I didn’t contribute any of it – of course I did. Nor has this got anything to do with my politics, or anyone else’s politics. My ALP membership is no secret.
October 29, 2007 at 2:21 am
wbb, Parramatta is a Liberal seat on its new boundaries, although it has a Labor sitting member. It is therefore one of the 16 seats Labor needs to win. Conversely, Macquarie has a sitting Liberal member but is a Labor seat on the new boundaries, so it is not one of the 16.
October 29, 2007 at 8:23 am
Thanks for that explanation, Adam. Now I understand.
October 29, 2007 at 11:28 am
Thank you Adam for providing this BLOG.
I would be most interested as I am sure a number of Geelong (Vic) voters would be to have your opinion on the recent announcement by Gavan O’Connor to resign from the labour party after 27 years, and to stand as an independent in the Federal Seat of Corio. Do you think this will present a real challenge, votes wise , for the Labour candidate Richard Marles (x union official) and for the labour party in general.? Cheers KF (Ocean Grove)
October 29, 2007 at 12:21 pm
Katrina, it’s obviously an unpleasant diversion for Labor to have the sitting member sniping at them from the sidelines, and echoing the Liberal line about unions and factions etc. It’s not only a diversion in Corio, but also in Corangamite, which Labor would very much like to win.
Since you live in the area you probably know more about it than I do, but my information is that O’Connor is not expected to poll particularly well, maybe 15 or 20%. Some of his votes will be Liberals voting tactically thinking that’s the best way to beat Labor. The Libs got 40% last time, but they will get a lot less this time given the overall swing. I doubt O’Connor and the Libs can get 50% between them. I also doubt that O’Connor can get ahead of the Lib to benefit from his preferences.
I don’t think O’Connor has made a statement on who he will preference, but he will have to do so soon. If he decides to preference the Libs, he will get a lot fewer votes. Some Labor people may be annoyed at O’Connor being dumped, but they’re not going to support him if he is seen to be helping Howard.
Either way I don’t think there’s much doubt that Marles will win, and O’Connor will have got himself expelled from the Labor Party for no good reason.
Since you live in Corangamite, perhaps you can give us your view on the situation there. Is MacArthur past it? Is Cheeseman any good? Will the Surf Coast swing to Labor?
October 29, 2007 at 12:47 pm
I have seen liberals interviewed on TV in which they are shown that labour’s frontbench is not 70% union officals. They dont care and wont stop saying it. I can understand, they have nothing new to sell. If they didnt lie then all they could say is, ‘Please dont vote for labour! We want to keep our jobs’
– http://nobodycares.org
October 29, 2007 at 11:54 pm
Adam, by your own analysis 60% of Labor’s front bench are former union officials. Its really the same order of magnitude as 70% so to rubbish 70% is just plain ridiculous.
October 30, 2007 at 12:02 am
Leis, the Liberal advertising doesn’t say “official”, it says “boss.” See the graphic from the Liberal website I have reproduced. A “boss” is a person in authority, not a research officer or an organiser. Only seven of the Shadow Cabinet have held positions of authority in unions, such as being a state secretary. The 60% figure can only be reached by roping in anyone who has ever worked for a union in any capacity.
October 30, 2007 at 3:00 pm
Thanks Adam for your prediction regarding Corio and possible ramifications for Corangamite. It is a real shame that a good person like Gavan O’Connor who has genuinely supported the people of his electorate and been actively involved with the community (and has the respect of many) may end up on the political scap heap. I agree that if he were to give preference to the libs(which I doubt) then his traditional (labour) supporters & votes would drop off markedly. Marles has done little to impress and is not particularly vocal on local issues such as job cuts at Ford amongst other issues. I believe the fear factor alone of another term of Howard’s Govt will be enough to retain the seat of Corio for the labour party, regardless of the candidate’s credentials to get the job done!
Re: Corangamite…Stuart , Stuart who? Unfortunately we only ever see him come out of the wood work around election time, photographed sliding down the slippery dip at the local primary school! The changing demographics and the needs of the “younger diverse” community have not been embraced by the sitting member who considers it is essentially a rural conservative electorate. With the increased number of young families and professional couples having a sea change has put pressure upon health and education facilities in the area , IR workchoices/job cuts, and the rising cost of petrol and interest rates are issues that Cheeseman hopes to drive home. Basically the incumbent is out of touch and has been ineffectual for many years, unfortunately it has been a case of the devil you know. However the pendulum has definitely swung against McArthur and hopefully the Howard fear factor will be enough to win the seat for Labour’s Cheeseman.
October 30, 2007 at 4:08 pm
Good report about North Sydney; i am more optimistic than most about Bailey’s chances because of his past. he was the ultimate weather reporter and an old style Sydney sort of bloke (you Vics may not understand but we are not all flibbertyjibs up here) – reliable, decent, Wests Tigers supporter with a strong Irish working class background and he has been on TV seemingly forever stolidly telling us about fog and frost warnings on the central slopes and plains. Your Hockey is a bit of smart-arsed Jesuit type from St. Alos; although he doesn’t seem to have the clear and analytic thinking the Jesuits are famous for. I would suspect many of the voters in North Sydney are ABC types and they will all know who Mike Bailey is and will trust him to to do the right thing. He would make a perfect minister for meteorology.
November 1, 2007 at 12:12 am
Excellent synopsis on life above Luna Park. I note with interest your post includes a lyric from Bob Dylan.
Perhaps the closing lines to Queen’s Bohemian Rhapsody ciykd ; “Nothing really matters, anyone can see. Nothing really matters – nothing really matters, to me – any way the wind blows.”
The 3rd verse may also be apt to Sloppy Joe’s predicament; “It’s too late everybody, I’ve got to go. Got to leave you all behind and face the truth. Mama, I don’t want to die, but I sometimes wish I’d never been born at all.”
November 1, 2007 at 1:21 pm
Start a new blog post about each new bit of commentary! Please!
Your senate analysis was excellent. I’d put down the Coalition “losing” to seats — one in SA, and one in the ACT.
November 2, 2007 at 12:33 am
Hi Adam, a few observations:
1. It’s now clear that Labor’s primary vote, having jumped to 48pc shortly after Rudd’s elevation, seems to be rusted on. And short of catastrophic blunders by Team Rudd, is likely to stay that way.
2. The interesting question is: who are these 1-in-20 voters who apparently were just waiting for some credible ALP leader to change their allegiance? If we can answer that question, then we can hone the predictions about which seats are likely to move, and by how much.
3. The swing, should it eventuate, will certainly enter the pseph history books, and I think the main reason for this is that so many Coalition seats are sitting on what I think of as the “Latham cushion”. This is why Lindsay will certainly fall and why Cowan (where *every* booth recorded a swing against Labor in 2004) is safe for Labor.
4. I am glad to see that I am not alone in thinking The Australian’s handling of its poll data is deeply peculiar, for instance: “… and a lead in Western Australia are the only bright spots for the Coalition”. How a 4pc swing against the Coalition, which nominally would secure Swan and Cowan for Labor and deliver Hasluck and Stirling, is “a lead” is beyond me. (Mind you, I notice Michelle in the Age committing the same error in her coverage of Nielson just now).
Anyway, very useful site.
cheers, john
November 2, 2007 at 6:23 am
Excellent site, especially the Senate analysis, which has always confused me I must reluctantly admit – but then living in the ACT, in safe Labor territory for so long meant the Senate wasn’t much of an issue for us in the past anyway.
But it is this time around – for what its worth, the ACT Liberal Senator is very much on the nose with locals on the streets rumour mill, from his years in local ACT Territory govt, and his filling of the casual Senate vacancy in 2003 was unpopular. The ACT “Grey Voters” have also come out publicly against him and the Howard Govt – primarily with a grievance on their public sector super retirement pensions for veterans, Defence force personnel, and public servants which has fallen way behind their private sector counterparts over the last 10 years. Also, living next-door to Eden-Monaro in NSW probably won’t help the incumbents.
On the bright side, living in safe seat means the pollies leave us alone during campaigns, no door-knocking here, no junk mail in the letterbox, and even TV campaign ads are minimal (and usually pitched at Eden-Monaro!). One of our ACT car licence plates reads “Heart of the Nation”, and usually in elections the local joke is “and we wish the rest of the country would follow their Heart!”
Cheers, Rain
November 2, 2007 at 10:32 am
Thanks for above comments. Hi John, nice to hear from you.
The Lib 2PV in WA was 55.4, so if Nielsen has shown it at 55 now, that means basically no swing. In those circumstances I would expect Cowan to be at some risk following the loss of Edwards’ personal vote, but as John says there may well be some recovery from the Latham effect in the outer suburbs. If there is indeed no swing either way in WA, Labor will hold Swan, Hasluck will be very close and I suspect Labor will not win Stirling.
November 2, 2007 at 1:36 pm
On WA, Adam, I was going by the Newspoll state breakdowns which are averaged over several polls for each result (and I believed somewhat oversampled for WA in the individual polls) and show the Coalition’s vote sinking from 55.4 to 51 (consistent for July through to October). Although this appears to be on the back of a somewhat smaller (but still significant) dip in primary votes.
I take this to be the underlying trend, but I reckon we have insufficient data to determine what Narrowing may have occurred during the campaign. The ninemsn online poll shows Swan and Cowan in good shape for Labor; Hasluck falling and Stirling held for the Libs; and a very large swing in Canning. But of course it’s difficult to assess the reliability of that poll.
At a minimum, I suspect things are not as static in WA as Nielsen suggests.
November 2, 2007 at 2:53 pm
I wonder about W.A., how accurate have the national pollsters been in previous elections?
The commentators all seem to attribute a stronger coaltion vote there because of workchoices benefiting all those mineral boom workers. But many are from interstate on limited term contracts with 4 weeks on 1 week off, so they are very unlikely to change their electoral addresses, and workchoice is, i suspect, poison electorally because of its effect on young and unskilled workers – they won’t be benefiting from mineral booms in W.A. either. Perhaps there other factors operating out west, what do our sandgroper compadres think?
November 3, 2007 at 12:21 am
Fascinating stuff in The Australian. You’d scarcely believe that Sol and Dennis were commenting on the same set of numbers.
Shanahan: “While the ALP is still in front of the Coalition in key marginal electorates, the gap is much narrower than national polling indicates …”
Lebovic: “This latest Newspoll in the most marginal seats … shows the swing in these seats, 7per cent since the last election, is virtually identical to the 6.8 per cent national swing measured in last weekend’s Newspoll.”
I guess we will have to wait for the actual data to determine what’s going on.
November 3, 2007 at 7:24 am
Today is the half way mark. 3 weeks down 3 weeks to go. The KR Express is picking up passengers Australia wide & is rolling to a platform near you. I cant wait till polling day & hand out how to votes in Bonner. We will be calibrating early as it will go first & then party on more as we watch a well deserved land slide sweep this “right wing junta” out of office. AMEN!!
November 3, 2007 at 2:47 pm
Sorry to obsess about The Australian, but I did work there for 13 years and I cannot believe the deliberately tendentious presentation of this very important Newspoll marginal seat data. It used to be case that the Newspoll results were covered with a write-up that explained the results with a “straight bat” – not anymore.
Having now bought the paper, I find not only that the full data will not be published until Monday but we still do not know *which seats* were actually surveyed (apart from Victoria). This would be particularly important in NSW.
Among the many, many deliberate deceits is the huge graphic on page 6 that presents a “best-case” scenario for the Coalition by subtracting the margin of error from the poll result, which is then presented implicitly as “worst case”. But this is nonsense. The worst case, if you are going to perform this silly exercise, would be to *add* the error margin to the poll result, which is itself the *likely* result, sitting between best and worst cases.
They are yet to publish *any* comments on Shanahan’s blog (including mine). But I am sufficiently irritated to pursue the matter further 🙂
November 3, 2007 at 4:50 pm
That will be all on The Australian, please. We get enough of that over at Pollbludger. Dissect the poll by all means, but no more media analysis.
November 3, 2007 at 10:09 pm
Hi Adam,
Congratulations on the blog.
Here’s a link to an article on Tim Horan, independent candidate for Parkes. He is the bloke who went reasonable close to winning Barwon in this year’s NSW State election.
http://dubbo.yourguide.com.au/news/local/political/horan-makes-his-mind-up/1079858.html
November 8, 2007 at 9:01 pm
Very good work Adam.
I only have one thing to add regarding WA
Cowan is notionally Liberal. The retiring Labor member has/had a massive personal vote and worked very hard to keep it that way.
He also atracted a strong conservative vote aswell.
The seat swung massively last election because of a big demographic shift on top of the factors we all know nationally.
I would actually put Cowan somewhere between 4% and 6% Lib lead before any swing is taken into account.
I know it may attract some critisism, but if you knew the bloke, knew how recognisable he was and how hard he worked his electorate, you would not write this idea off too quickly.
I am tipping one loss and one gain in the west for the Libs, but the seat to watch for biggest swings will be Canning with about 9.5% margin at the moment. probably not an ALP gain but it will definately be one of the most marginal seats next election.
November 9, 2007 at 1:36 pm
Regardless of who wins government, the real issue and opportunity is the Senate, and the capacity of independents to join together to ensure that a true reflection of the Australian ‘fair go and respect’ for all citizens is achieved in the legislation. These are not mere ‘words’ or unsubstantiated promises. but real intentions that respond to the current and ‘true’ state of Australian social, educational and health condition.
At what stage do ordinary Australians start thinking about our carers, people with disabilities, our frail aged and our mentally ill, who are our most vulnerable citizens? If their disadvantage continues, we will all be worse off. If the proper legislative responses for our most vulnerable citizens do not occur soon, especially in a time of unprecidented national prosperity, when does it occur?
The new Carers Alliance Party is standing candidates in the Senate in WA, NSW, Vic and QLD. For everyones sake, please consider this option in the Senate for 2007.
November 11, 2007 at 10:18 pm
Caution in the West: I think what you mean to say is that Cowan is notionally *Labor* but actually *Liberal* because of the loss of Edwards’s personal vote. I think you are probably correct in that, meaning that Labor needs a positive swing in WA to retain it.
Thomas, is it correct that Carers Alliance is preferencing the Coalition? Can you explain this decision?
November 12, 2007 at 2:52 pm
Hey Adam. Thnx again for the awsome website and specifically for making a polling place map for my electorate of Franklin.
I know you’ve done alot of hard work to add all the extra stuff latley and i dont want to sound nit picky. But on a small side note in your Franklin map, Tranmere is not between wentworth street and howrah but closer to Rokeby (but along the water). I only mention it as i live in Tranmere :P. I can understand how u could make it as people even in some eastern shore suburbs have no idea where it is. I also understand it is also very minor.
Keep up the good work.
November 12, 2007 at 6:14 pm
Scott, thanks for spotting that error, which I have fixed.
November 13, 2007 at 3:40 pm
Adam:
Your “12 Seats To Watch” analysis, first posted October 19 was very interesting, and informative. Was interested in your comments on Deakin and McMillan in Vic. In the last week, seems Centrebet has dramatically shortened their odds on Labor winning both seats.
Wonder your views on Moreton, Bass and Lindsay which are not among these 12, although their swing margins fall within these 12 seats.
Enjoy your site — especially the maps showing the booths and how they voted last time.
Will
November 13, 2007 at 4:30 pm
Will, Moreton, Bass and Lindsay are in the first group of ten seats which I say in that article I am certain Labor will win. I haven’t changed my mind about that. There was a recent poll showing Labor well ahead in Bass.
November 13, 2007 at 7:22 pm
Thanks for your analysis of the figures behind “70% … union bosses”. What’s so scary about people with union connections any way? People have to develop their political skills somewhere and working for unions is one way that happens. Unions are supposed to work for people’s rights … a bit like politicians are supposed to … Still they are held up as bogeymen. No better or worse a background than most, I would have thought.
Matilda
November 14, 2007 at 12:13 am
Your conclusion that “the only certainty in this year’s Senate election is that the Democrats will lose their four seats” is looking more like wishful thinking with each day.
1. The Democrats have had positive media, more so than at any recent campaign – comparable with media coverage of the Greens.
2. This time there hasn’t been an incident/ issue to unlease media hostility. Rather, the Dems have been vindicated on crucial issues such as Iraq, David Hicks, refugees, anti-terror laws and industrial relations.
3. Democrats are the only Party that usually polls better in the Senate than in the Lower House, especially attracting Liberal voters, so its (albeit low) Reps vote should be seen as just a base vote for the Senate; not so for the Greens or Family First, etc.
4. Most voters regretted giving Senate control to the Government, and some realise that the Dems have continued to work tirelessly, despite losing Balance of Power. The Greens, Family First, One Nation and other minor Parties are not faring particularly well this election, and many of their lead candidates are unimpressive.
6. Some support is likely to return amongst those who see the Senate contest as a race between The Greens, Family First, DLP and the Dems for Balance of Power in the Senate and favour the Dems’ cooperative and constructive approach and experience in this role.
7. The potential for Democrats support was demonstrated in the Albert Park bi-election – 5.8% in a field of nine candidates, outpolling all except Greens and ALP (there was no Liberal candidate).
8. In Victoria, about twenty leading feminists have released a statement in support of Lyn Allison – many of these have ALP affiliations.
9. While major parties’ preferences have been allocated away from the Democrats, preferences will flow from most micro Parties and nearly all independents.
10. The Democrats’ Lower House candidates are of a high calibre and are overwhelmingly young. Voters can readily see that the Democrats are not dead or dying, as is often stated by lazy journalists. Nonetheless, voters know the Party needs support now if it is to survive in its well regarded Senate role, whether it be Howard or Rudd.
11. While you disregard Morgan Senate polls, the trend must be valid. The latest poll (which is ignored on your site) shows an increasing Democrats vote nationally and in most States. Momentum in the final weeks is critical.
12. I’ll speculalte that below-the-line voting favours the Democrats as incumbats and as a well known Party.
I agree that a Democrats win in the Senate is no certainty, but your definitive (and hopeful) prediction should be revisited as it is a possibilty.
November 14, 2007 at 9:43 am
Paul, with respect, I disagree with most your points and I don’t believe the Democrats will win any seats. I would have given Natasha Stott Despoja some chance, but I don’t believe Allison or Bartlett have high enough profiles – and Bartlett’s profile is mostly negative. I’ve responded before to your claim to have polled well in Albert Park – 5.8% in a seat like Albert Park and no Liberal candidate was in fact a very poor result. I ignore Senate polls because the concept of a distinct Senate vote is false. 90% of voters vote above the line and follow their party’s HTV.
November 15, 2007 at 12:15 am
Strange that 5.8% is now interpreted as a very poor result when every commentator predicted a much lower Democrats vote prior to the Albert Park bi-election, and expected the Dems to be outpolled by Family First and others.
November 15, 2007 at 12:40 am
The Democrats have been “vindicated on crucial decisions like industrial relations.” Mate this is the reason they will be wiped out. The democrats passed Howard’s first wave of IR laws in the senate. and don’t get me staryted on Meg Lees and the GST.
November 15, 2007 at 11:04 am
I have no idea which commentators predicted what about Albert Park. My opinion (as a local resident as well as an election-watcher) is that Albert Park should be very good territory for a small-l liberal party. In a by-election with no Liberal candidate, against fairly ordinary Labor and Green candidates, the Democrats should have got 20% of the vote, and a decade ago they would have done. In fact 5.8% was not a real vote at all, it was just “spray” from Liberals with no-one to vote for.
November 15, 2007 at 11:45 pm
I’m surprised you don’t know what commentators predicted for Albert Park. The nine candidates included a former Liberal Party member, a current Liberal Party member, an ‘independent liberal’, DLP, Family First and another conservative. Every commentator on every political blog predicted the Democrats would be easily outpolled by most or all of these. The opposite happened.
‘Clement Atlee’ Seven years and you’re still wingeing about the GST. Move on ! The real debate is how to spend that revenue – it should be spent on health, public transport, renewable energy and international aid, rather than vote-buying, spying and defence, gov’t propaganda and endless road building.
I’m sure most Australians prefer the moderate, fair IR system that was negotiated with the Democrats, rather than WorChoices or the earlier IR system.
November 16, 2007 at 10:41 am
Paul, I appreciate your party loyalty, but if you can’t see that the Dem vote in Albert Park was very poor, there’s no help for you. The order in which the minor candidates finished is hardly material to anything – none of them got any significant vote. And the point of this discussion was the Dems’ prospects in the Senate. I stand by my prediction that the Dems will win no Senate seats. I’ll make another prediction: no Dem candidate anywhere in Australia will get 5% of the vote.
November 16, 2007 at 8:11 pm
Insightful article on North Sydney Adam. Joe Hockey must be wondering why he, seen as ‘head’ of the moderates of the liberal party, can’t sway the ‘elites’.
I saw Mike Bailey the other day, and he seemed quietly confident, though emphasising that 10.2% is a big margin to overcome. It will be very interesting to see what happens.
November 16, 2007 at 11:27 pm
The Democrats received no electronic media coverage for Albert Park. This was tacitly acknowledged when The Age publiched my letter to this effect after the election. This, despite the 2006 State election investigation by the Press Council which reported that the Democrats were the only Party that was treated unfairly by the media in 2006. This lack of coverage has been reversed dramatically since Albert Park.
Adam, as I’m sure you know, the Democrats can win a Senate seat with less than 5% in Victoria, Qld, WA and NSW. So your prediction would need to be more definite to be consistent with your rediction that the Democrats will lose every seat. It sounds like you are revising your early prediction.
It seems that many Liberals are returning to the Democrats in the Senate, if early voting in Higgins this week is indicative.
Also, in the past 48 hours alone, I’ve met three ALP stalwarts who, like the group of leading feminists, are voting for Lyn Allison – as they’re impressed with her and are disgusted with the ALP for preferencing her at 48, after the Shooters Party.
After much recent publicity for the Democrats, such as the panels on Sunday. Lateline and Meet the Press and Laura Chipp’s brilliant 12-minute Channel 10 interview this morning, I’m confident of a revival in the Democrats vote.
How do you think The Greens and Family First are faring in this campaign ? I think they have reason to be disppointed with their coverage. I’d like to see more coverage of Richard di Natale as he’s a great candidate. If Lyn Allsison misses out, his election would be a consolation – unlike Greens in other States who do not impress.
November 17, 2007 at 12:16 am
Mate you received no media coverage because your party is now irrelevant. They have always been a policy free zone, which is to be expected considering the fact that the Dems were only formed because Chipp got the shits for being left out of the first Fraser ministry.
Face it, the Democrats caved in to Reith and allowed the first wave of Tory IR reform.
November 17, 2007 at 9:28 am
I expect all the minor parties to lose votes as the Rudd tsunami sweeps the political landscape.
November 17, 2007 at 1:26 pm
your comment that the labor candidate in solomon in 2001 was ‘weak’ is not fair. she was preselected after the previous candidate jumped ship to be cos in the newly elected nt labor govt. given that she had less than 10 weeks to establsh herself a loss by 86 votes in a new seat shows no weakness in ms hull methinks.
November 17, 2007 at 2:49 pm
impressive Adam, and gutsy … fingers crossed you are 20 or so seats short on the night … but good luck to us … hope it doesn’t rain.
November 21, 2007 at 11:28 pm
Former Democrats voters who supported the Liberals in 2004 (few went ALP or Green) are returning to the Democrats. I’m convinced of this based on the past two weeks spent at the Higgins Early Voting Centre.
The extensive and overwhelmingly positive media for the Democrats this time continued this evening with the stunning twenty-minute SBS program on the colouful campaign launch. This program went to air shortly after Kerry O’Brien spoke with Kevin Rudd on the 7.30 Report about the GST’s central role in Australia’s economic success.
Recent developments, including the regional funding review and tonight’s Lateline story about the Liberals speading hate and lies against Muslims for their own political gain should further boost the Democrats vote.
All the while the Democrats’ adveerting has been a highlight of this dreary and uninspiring election.
November 22, 2007 at 3:30 pm
Adam,
Joe Hockey has the reputation for being affable (and small ‘l’ liberal) but his performance on Work Choices legislation and in particular the recent monstering/slandering of Sydney university academics on research into Work Choices suggest there is another side to him.
The bully boy tactics of various frontbenchers that has emerged increasingly over the past 12 months could not be attractive to the electorate that you describe in North Sydney. However, it is hard to see how the electorate’s economic interests will not prevail and the views that Libs are better at managing the economy (for whom is the question of course) have too much traction for a Mike Bailey election.
I must say I am still in the hopeful ranks with respect to an ALP victory. There have been to many polls to not suggest the Rudd ALP team have a real chance but there are too many unknowns such as just how appealing is Rudd to the ‘aspirational’ voter? We will find out soon and I hope your predictions come true.
November 22, 2007 at 10:06 pm
Nowhere in this analysis or commentary does anyone discuss the prospects of a Family First candidate being elected. They have an excellent chance in Qld. All they have to do is exceed Hanson’s vote and they are home. There vote will be much higher there in this election as they are running candidates in all electorates. In fact if Qld had a bi-carmal State parliament they would already have a parliamentarian.
In SA if Xenphon has opened things up for another minor. I rate it a 50-50 chance of splitting 2-2-1-1 and the probability within that scenario is that the sixth seat will go to FFP. FFP outpolled the Greens and Demacrats in the State election, and had the last candidate standing in 2004.
Both Jeff Buchanan and Tony Bates are excellent candidates.
November 24, 2007 at 11:01 am
Re the Labor CVs-I’m pretty sure that Peter Garrett has done a bit more than listed- didnt he head up the Australian Conservation Foundation for a while? And of course, he campaigned heavily against the Australia Card. And then there was the Nuclear Disarmament Party. I think this is relevant because most listed indicate long career in party/ union which some criticise Labor for. Garrett does have a more colourful and interesting past.
November 25, 2007 at 7:03 am
This is a masterly socio-political and psephological analysis. It lucidly covers a number of factors, some of which are not usually dealt with by analysts of polls and traditional psephologists.
November 25, 2007 at 10:34 pm
I haven’t looked at this thread for a while, sorry to have ignored recent posts. Paul and Ray, I imagine you are feeling a right pair of geese today. Both Family First and the Democrats vanished without trace last night. This was the Dems’ last federal election. FF will linger on, as Fred Nile’s sect does, as a matter of faith rather than rational politics, but they’ll never amount to anything and Fielding will lose his seat in 2010.
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